Thursday, August 9, 2007

LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS



LIES, DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

It is said that there are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics. Why is this so? Aren’t statistics supposed to help us make decisions and make life better. Unfortunately this branch of mathematics has long been misused by unscrupulous people for their own purpose.

Did you see the ad where one supermarket compared their prices with the others? The supermarket points out how cheap they are against the rest and why the public should shop there.
Unfortunately they also left out prices for other goods which they know they are uncompetitive. They may also fail to mention that the prices apply only on certain hours of the day, or it is valid for members only.

There is one billboard in the middle of JB town touting the location of Setia Tropika which it claims is only 15 minutes away. Right! Maybe in the middle of the night while breaking the speed limit and running all the red lights.

That is why when Malaysiakini published some statistics on the voters preference by Merdeka Center, we studied it with skepticisms.

KTEMOC pointed out that if we were add up the Chinese support for the opposition, we will end up with 127%. A statistical impossibility if ever there was one.

Actually what I think it meant is that the Chinese represents 62% of the support for DAP with the Indians 33% and the Malays 8%.(Which is still wrong because it adds up to 102%) It does not at any time meant 62% of Chinese supported DAP which I suspect was the intention of publishing the statistics in the first place. But if this was true , it would mean PAS would lose Kelantan very soon because 95% of its voters are Malays. There are very little Chinese and Indians in Kelantan.
And what about the national averages? What could it mean? Does it mean 30% of the voters support DAP while 27% supports PAS and 31% PKR? It would mean, logically PKR should have more seats in the Parliament than what they have now which is a total of one.

Actually the statistics represented in the chart is quite meaningless. There is no actual figures you can compare between the parties, not even between PKR and PAS. If you read it the “wrong “ way, you would think that UMNO only has 37% of the Malay votes and MIC only gets 12% of the Indian votes. Abdullah and Samy Vellu will be sleepless while MCA and Gerakan with -27% will cease to exist.

So there, lies, damn lies and meaningless statistics, the three things we could do without.

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